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Fed Talk

The Fed meeting today should offer nothing new. The Fed's policy review is ongoing and any adjustments seem unlikely until September. Market positions are decidedly long metals and short dollars for the first time in quite awhile. Those themes are entrenched and thus any reaction opposite recent trends will offer new entries. If your timeframe is 1-5 days, however, the risk takers I talk to feel there just isn't a lot of risk/reward at current levels. As such, much of the flow should be a function of month end, emotional reactions to Powell's press conference, and risk proxies (equities). Today is value date month end, which usually sees some USD corporate demand - but again - all dollar rallies have been sold. Stocks are interesting here as we are extremely consolidated over the past few weeks.

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