top of page

What's Happening?


There’s a lot of uncertainty in financial markets right now — and a lot of vacillating, which can sometimes feel like the same thing. Many analysts believe markets will bounce back and forth for some time, driven by headlines, not fundamentals, until some big issues — the U.S. presidential election, a COVID-19 treatment, just to name a few — are resolved.


The third-quarter outlook from BCA Research is a bit more resolute, however.


The firm, led by its chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, acknowledges the “nervous” tenor of trading patterns right now, but adds: “Nevertheless, we would ‘buy the dip’ if global equities were to fall 5% to 10% from current levels. While the pace of reopening will slow, there is little appetite for the sort of extreme lockdown measures that were implemented in March. The U.S. Congress will ultimately extend fiscal support for households and firms. Around the world, both fiscal and monetary policy will remain highly accommodating, which should provide a supportive backdrop for stocks.”


Here’s a bit more of what BCA is thinking for the third quarter and beyond. • Coronavirus will continue to take a toll, sometimes tragic, on the world, but “we are unlikely to see the sort of broad-based economic dislocations experienced in March” as mask-wearing and other preventative measures are adopted and because the medical community is better equipped to handle flareups, they say. • The U.S. Congress will extend emergency benefits, despite some of the current heavy breathing about reining in government spending and the illogic of letting people earn more from unemployment than they did on the job. “Politically, stimulus remains very popular,” the analysts wrote. “Unlike during the housing bust, there has been little moral hand-waving about bailing out households and firms that ‘don’t deserve it.’”


• Despite an overall bullish landscape for riskier assets, there will be “considerable near-term dislocations, particularly for airlines, hotels, commercial real estate operators and developers, and associated lenders to these sectors” as the world stays hunkered down and considers permanent changes to old ways of doing things, like business travel and working in offices.


• For all that, global stocks will be higher 12 months from now, for many reasons: monetary stimulus, trillions of dollars of “cash on the sidelines,” and perhaps more bad news priced into markets than many investors would believe, Berezin’s team wrote.


 
 
 

Recent Posts

See All
Good News On the Jobs Front

This jobs number should ease some recession fears, although next weeks CPI will be a key indicator as we all know. Payrolls were up...

 
 
 
More Products to Manage Risk

It is incredible the products the CME Group keep developing to efficiently manage risk. Coming in October they will be releasing products...

 
 
 

Kommentare


Fractal Finance

872-225-2110 ext. 2

FAX: 872-225-2110

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • linkedin

©2023 BY QUANT TRADE, LLC. QUANT TRADE, LLC IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR CLIENT OR SUBSCRIBER LOSSES. TRADING FUTURES, STOCKS, FOREX AND OPTIONS INVOLVES THE RISK OF LOSS. YOU SHOULD CONSIDER CAREFULLY WHETHER FUTURES, STOCKS, FOREX AND OPTIONS ARE APPROPRIATE TO YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION. YOU MUST REVIEW THE CUSTOMER ACCOUNT AGREEMENT AND RISK DISCLOSURE PRIOR TO ESTABLISHING AN ACCOUNT. ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE USED WHEN TRADING FUTURES, STOCKS, FOREX AND OPTIONS. INVESTORS CAN LOSE MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE INHERENT RISKS OF SUCH AN INVESTMENT IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. INFORMATION CONTAINED, VIEWED, SENT OR ATTACHED IS CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.

bottom of page