Stocks post one of the top-5 worst quarters since WWII and Crude Oil went in the record books finishing its worst quarter ever!
Let's also not forget, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to sub-1% for the first time since the founding of this great nation.
Unfortunately, as I sit here this morning, it seems like the headlines in April will perhaps be harder to swallow than those of March.
The fear is we play a real-life version of whack-a-mole with the coronavirus for many more weeks.
Hopefully, if all goes well the U.S. consumer might be back out in public by June.
Remember, +80% of Americans are currently under some type of stay-at-home orders. And some State Governors have already dictated and implemented stay-at-home orders that now push out until June 10th.
Let's also keep in mind, the Global Health Security Index, a report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5—the world’s highest. Meaning, what type of train wreck could we see in other nations across the globe?
How does this ultimately impact the global economy? In my opinion, there's simply no way the world orchestrates a synchronized stomping out of the virus anytime soon. I suspect when we first come out of lock down there will still be a random traveler from a random country that creates a hot spot of infection. I believe this will clearly impact and change the consumer mindset.
As investors and traders, we have to think long and hard about that change and shift.
I suspect we will see a different approach towards public healthcare, there's even talk that our Millennial generation could fear global viruses and pandemics the way Boomers feared communism? It certainly makes one stop and think about how things will change?
Look at how travel on the airlines changed after 9/11. This coronavirus is much bigger and much more widespread and therefor certain to bring about big change.
Will governments see a change in leadership?
Will consumers make big changes when they come back online? Will companies that have been forced to pivot to remote working conditions stick with those changes?
Will people look to save more for rainy days? Will families eat at home more? So many questions and so few answers...
Real Estate Thoughts: Talking to lots of banks and people inside the real estate space. Commercial buildings could see significant price pressure six to nine months down the road as businesses become more receptive and adopt remote working. Obviously, there will be restaurants and bars for sale at discounted prices. Keep your eye on Texas, where cities like Houston and Austin could feel serious pain the soonest with both corona and crude oil colliding at the same time.
Goldman Forecasts Sharp Downturn Followed by Fastest Recovery in History: Goldman Sachs has revised its view on how the coronavirus will impact the U.S. economy, seeing a sharper downturn than originally thought followed by an even bigger upturn. Among its expectations are that the unemployment rate will peak at around 15% later this year, well above original expectations for 9%. Gross domestic product is forecast to fall -9% in the first quarter followed by a stunning -34% plunge in the second quarter that would be by far the worst period in post-World War II history. After that, Goldman expects the U.S. to see a spike higher in activity, featuring a +19% surge in Q3. That would take the U.S. from the worst quarter in history to its best. Economists at the firm cite “anecdotal evidence and the sky-high jobless claims numbers” to back its unemployment forecast. "This not only means deeper negatives in the very near term but also raises the specter of more adverse second-round effects on income and spending a bit further down the road,” the firm said in a note. Goldman sees the main propulsion behind the recovery coming from fiscal and monetary support that is greater than expected